大同—阳高Ms6.1地震前兆综合加权信息熵的变化     

张昭栋  刘章增  赵会蓬 《大地测量与地球动力学》2002,22(1):51-55

利用“地震预报计算机专家系统”的思想对大同 -阳高 Ms6 .1地震前每一前兆异常事件进行综合评估 ,以每一异常的最可能发震时间来计算发震概率 ,利用地震前兆综合加权信息熵研究了系统熵值与地震的关系。对华北地区的地震前兆综合加权信息熵研究表明 ,在大同 -阳高 Ms6 .1地震前 ,信息熵出现了明显的减熵有序变化  相似文献   

模糊划分矩阵在岩土参数概率分布中的应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

刘明  熊彩霞  马金荣 《地球科学与环境学报》2002,24(4):38-41

讨论如何在小样本条件下用已有的过程经验与试验资料确定岩土参数概率分布,用模糊划分矩阵与BAYES方法相结合,给出由小样本试验数据确定岩土参数的概率分布。  相似文献   

疏散星团NGC6530天区的恒星自行和成员概率     

温文  赵君亮陈力 《中国科学院上海天文台年刊》2005,(1):79-94

利用上海天文台的照相底片资料,确定了疏散星团NGC6530天区364颗恒星的自行和成员概率,并对有关自行测定的方法、结果和精度等问题作了较为详细的介绍和讨论。使用的底片历元差为87年,全部恒星自行中误差的均方根值为1．09mas/a。  相似文献   

密度和压缩系数的散射层析成像法   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

袁晓晖  王妙月 《地球物理学报》1991,34(6):753-761

本文在速度成像的基础上研究了同时对密度和压缩系数成像的散射波层析成像法.对不同散射角度的计算可以得到一系列反演图像,拟合这些图像,从而可以有效地达到对密度和压缩系数（或速度）成像的目的.与单纯的速度成像相比,增加了反演的难度.首先是对资料的方位性要求增加;其次是对资料的利用率下降.即便如此,从对较少量的炮点和检波点资料的数值计算来看,仍取得了满意的成像结果.我们对组成字母“A”的散射体结构进行了成像计算,结果能够同时再现密度和压缩系数,成像清晰,表明了方法的可行性,并能应用于复杂结构的成像问题.  相似文献   

Predicting ground-motion variations at the Turkey-flat test site,California     

J. Zahradník  J. Jech  V. Barták 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1991,137(1-2):63-84

Results of a single group participating in an international experiment are analyzed. The experiment served to verify computational predictions of the ground-motion variations due to near-surface geological effects at a site established for that purpose by the California Department of Conservation. Based on an acceleration record at a rock location, and geotechnical model of medium, records at the other locations of a nearby sedimentary deposit were predicted. A 2-D finite-difference sensitivity analysis suggested that the lateral wave-propagation effects are negligibly small, and locally 1-D computations are sufficient for the present site. Those computations are compared with observations not available to the authors during the blind prediction. Peak accelerations, peak velocities and RMS accelerations were predicted with errors less than 159%, 114% and 62%, respectively. Maxima of the response spectra were fitted within a factor of 2. The predicted and observed Husid's plots (i.e., the normalized cumulative plots of the acceleration squared) have the correlation coefficients 0.98. The detected misfits do not show any simple relation to the instrument location, component, frequency, or time.  相似文献   

宁夏香山-天景山弧形断裂带新活动特征及1709年中卫南71/2级地震形变带   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

张维岐  焦德成  柴炽章  宋方敏  汪一鹏 《地震地质》1988,10(3):12

本文根据野外地质填图和水系位移测量结果,论述了香山-天景山弧形断裂带新生代有两个不同活动性质的阶段,即早期阶段的强烈挤压和晚期阶段的左旋走滑兼挤压。分析、讨论了不同活动阶段的时间界限和转变原因。指出了1709年中卫南71/_2级地震形变带的表现形式、延伸范围  相似文献   

Crustal structure at the easternmost termination of the Variscan belt based on CELEBRATION 2000 and ALP 2002 data     

P. Hrubcov  P. roda  CELEBRATION Working Group 《Tectonophysics》2008,460(1-4):55-75

The eastern margin of the Variscan belt in Europe comprises plate boundaries between continental blocks and terranes formed during different tectonic events. The crustal structure of that complicated area was studied using the data of the international refraction experiments CELEBRATION 2000 and ALP 2002. The seismic data were acquired along SW–NE oriented refraction and wide-angle reflection profiles CEL10 and ALP04 starting in the Eastern Alps, passing through the Moravo-Silesian zone of the Bohemian Massif and the Fore-Sudetic Monocline, and terminating in the TESZ in Poland. The data were interpreted by seismic tomographic inversion and by 2-D trial-and-error forward modelling of the P waves. Velocity models determine different types of the crust–mantle transition, reflecting variable crustal thickness and delimiting contacts of tectonic units in depth. In the Alpine area, few km thick LVZ with the Vp of 5.1 km s^− 1 dipping to the SW and outcropping at the surface represents the Molasse and Helvetic Flysch sediments overthrust by the Northern Calcareous Alps with higher velocities. In the Bohemian Massif, lower velocities in the range of 5.0–5.6 km s^− 1 down to a depth of 5 km might represent the SE termination of the Elbe Fault Zone. The Fore-Sudetic Monocline and the TESZ are covered by sediments with the velocities in the range of 3.6–5.5 km s^− 1 to the maximum depth of 15 km beneath the Mid-Polish Trough. The Moho in the Eastern Alps is dipping to the SW reaching the depth of 43–45 km. The lower crust at the eastern margin of the Bohemian Massif is characterized by elevated velocities and high Vp gradient, which seems to be a characteristic feature of the Moravo-Silesian. Slightly different properties in the Moravian and Silesian units might be attributed to varying distances of the profile from the Moldanubian Thrust front as well as a different type of contact of the Brunia with the Moldanubian and its northern root sector. The Moho beneath the Fore-Sudetic Monocline is the most pronounced and is interpreted as the first-order discontinuity at a depth of 30 km.  相似文献   

A seismic source zone model for the seismic hazard assessment of the Italian territory   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Carlo Meletti  Fabrizio Galadini  Gianluca Valensise  Massimiliano Stucchi  Roberto Basili  Salvatore Barba  Gianfranco Vannucci  Enzo Boschi 《Tectonophysics》2008,450(1-4):85-108

We designed a new seismic source model for Italy to be used as an input for country-wide probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in the frame of the compilation of a new national reference map.

We started off by reviewing existing models available for Italy and for other European countries, then discussed the main open issues in the current practice of seismogenic zoning.

The new model, termed ZS9, is largely based on data collected in the past 10 years, including historical earthquakes and instrumental seismicity, active faults and their seismogenic potential, and seismotectonic evidence from recent earthquakes. This information allowed us to propose new interpretations for poorly understood areas where the new data are in conflict with assumptions made in designing the previous and widely used model ZS4.

ZS9 is made out of 36 zones where earthquakes with M_w > = 5 are expected. It also assumes that earthquakes with M_w up to 5 may occur anywhere outside the seismogenic zones, although the associated probability is rather low. Special care was taken to ensure that each zone sampled a large enough number of earthquakes so that we could compute reliable earthquake production rates.

Although it was drawn following criteria that are standard practice in PSHA, ZS9 is also innovative in that every zone is characterised also by its mean seismogenic depth (the depth of the crustal volume that will presumably release future earthquakes) and predominant focal mechanism (their most likely rupture mechanism). These properties were determined using instrumental data, and only in a limited number of cases we resorted to geologic constraints and expert judgment to cope with lack of data or conflicting indications. These attributes allow ZS9 to be used with more accurate regionalized depth-dependent attenuation relations, and are ultimately expected to increase significantly the reliability of seismic hazard estimates.  相似文献   

Development and application of a GIS-based tool for earthquake-induced hazard prediction     

Chang-Guk Sun  Sung-Ho Chun  Tae-Gyun Ha  Choong-Ki Chung  Dong-Soo Kim   《Computers and Geotechnics》2008,35(3):436-449

An integrated GIS-based tool (GTIS) was constructed to estimate site effects related to the earthquake hazards in the Gyeongju area of Korea. To build the GTIS for the study area, intensive site investigations and geotechnical data collections were performed and a walk-over site survey was additionally carried out to acquire surface geo-knowledge data in accordance with the procedure developed to build the GTIS. For practical applications of the GTIS used to estimate the site effects associated with the amplification of ground motion, seismic microzoning maps of the characteristic site period and the mean shear wave velocity to a depth of 30 m were created and presented as a regional synthetic strategy addressing earthquake-induced hazards. Additionally, based on one-dimensional site response analyses, various seismic microzoning maps for short- and mid-period amplification potentials were created for the study area. Case studies of seismic microzonations in the Gyeongju area verified the usefulness of the GTIS for predicting seismic hazards in the region.  相似文献   

Structural elements of the Makran region, Oman sea and their potential relevance to tsunamigenisis     

Mohammad Mokhtari  Iraj Abdollahie Fard  Khaled Hessami 《Natural Hazards》2008,47(2):185-199

The character of convergence along the Arabian–Iranian plate boundary changes radically eastward from the Zagros ranges to the Makran region. This appears to be due to collision of continental crust in the west, in contrast to subduction of oceanic crust in the east. The Makran subduction zone with a length of about 900 km display progressively older and highly deformed sedimentary units northward from the coast, together with an increase in elevation of the ranges. North of the Makran ranges are large subsiding basins, flanked to the north by active volcanoes. Based on 2D seismic reflection data obtained in this study, the main structural provinces and elements in the Gulf of Oman include: (i) the structural elements on the northeastern part of the Arabian Plate and, (ii) the Offshore Makran Accretionary Complex. Based on detailed analysis of these data on the northeastern part of the Arabian Plate five structural provinces and elements—the Musendam High, the Musendam Peneplain, the Musendam Slope, the Dibba Zone, and the Abyssal Plain have been identified. Further, the Offshore Makran Accretionary Complex shown is to consist Accretionary Prism and the For-Arc Basin, while the Accretionary Prism has been subdivided into the Accretionary Wedge and the Accreted/Colored Mélange. Lastly, it is important to note that the Makran subduction zone lacks the trench. The identification of these structural elements should help in better understanding the seismicity of the Makran region in general and the subduction zone in particular. The 1945 magnitude 8.1 tsunamigenic earthquake of the Makran and some other historical events are illustrative of the coastal region’s vulnerability to future tsunami in the area, and such data should be of value to the developing Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System.  相似文献